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| Shafer, Carl E.. |
| While the long term trend in U. S. production has been downward, increased imports have been supplying the upward trend in U. S. honey consumption. Exceptionally high producer level prices during 1996 and 1997 were apparently due to lower world supplies, particularly as reflected in stocks. The recent large increases in imports and, to a lesser extent, stocks led to the softening in U. S. producer prices in 1997 while retail prices and margins remained firm. U. S. retail poundage sales, based on Nielsen data, remained robust, dropping only slightly in the face of a 40% increase in retail price between 1995 and 1997. The producer price for honey in 1998 will depend largely on three factors: (1) U. S. honey producers' response in terms of honey... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24007 |
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| Shafer, Carl E.. |
| Pecan production, stocks, trade and prices are described. Data on tree nuts believed to compete with pecans are also presented. Pecan production and prices became more volatile in the early 1990's. Prices reached exceptionally high levels during five of the six years 1990-1995. US pecan imports have increased significantly since the mid-1980's and clearly exceed exports. Production, cold storage stocks, and inflation explained most of the year-to-year changes in season average pecan price levels in recent years. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24019 |
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| Shafer, Carl E.. |
| Equations for forecasting US improved and native pecan prices were reasonably successful for one season ahead forecasts. USDA October pecan crop forecasts, June cold storage stocks, and a GNP price deflator were the explanatory variables. These variables are readily available early in the pecan harvesting season (September - December). Data in first differences appeared to explain price behavior and forecast better than data in levels. Forecasts for the 1996 season prices reflected 70 percent of the large drop in price from the 1995 season. Unprecedented carryin stocks may have been responsible for the larger than forecast drop in prices. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24018 |
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| Shafer, Carl E.. |
| Price equations incorporating USDA October crop forecasts and June pecan stocks provided reasonable formulations for pecan price explanation and forecasting. USDA crop forecasts exceeded final reported production in 12 of the 18 seasons from 1970 to 1987, probably resulting in slightly lower prices and crop values. Large crop forecast errors in both direction and level in 1986 and 1987 confounded the price determination process. Nevertheless, producer prices may have been lower absent the October crop forecasts, which somewhat reduce buyers' uncertainty regarding supply. Early crop estimates provided a better explanation of price behavior than postseason revised production data. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1989 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30188 |
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| Fuller, Stephen W.; Capps, Oral, Jr.; Bello, Haruna; Shafer, Carl E.. |
| A structural model of the spring onion economy is developed to analyze forces affecting the onion-producing sector in Texas. Spring onion prices in Texas are influenced by own shipments, shipments from storage stocks, and variety. Texas's decline in market share is largely the result of expanded late summer (storage) onion production. A decline in the U.S. real tariff and a weakening of the real exchange rate (pesos/$) encouraged onion imports from Mexico during the study period. However, this impact was offset by the imposition of quality standards in 1980 and the growth in domestic late summer onion production. Study period results did not support the recent contention of Texas producers that onion imports from Mexico are unfavorably affecting prices... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Demand and Price Analysis; Industrial Organization. |
| Ano: 1991 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32597 |
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